Oh, what a year!

This year has been somewhat crazy of a start. Should that surprise anyone? But these days, it is the norm for the unexpected. Prince Fielder has had a better start than Albert Pujols, even though the consensus was that Albert was the number one pick and the most certain thing. As a result of this inconsistency, I’ve seen many trades on forums and elsewhere where some guy spends a lot for some player that wasn’t drafted, but has had a hot start. Barry Bonds is not worth spending Grady Sizemore. Today I want to sort out which players are the Dan Ugglas and the Chris Sheltons, or players that have started hot, but will not last. People I have as Sheltons are people I think that are good sell high candidates or ones that aren’t worth their price tag. However the ones like Uggla are ones that were players that did not have high expectations, but were solid players that had breakout years. Here are a couple of players I believe go in each category.

Real Deal:

B.J. Upton: I am fan of Upton. He hits in the D-Ray lineup that looks much improved this year. Upton has a great average and with 5 homers and 20 RBI in April he has showed pop. If he had played all last year, he would have had about 30 steals and it looks like he could reach that this year, which would be a bonus. Upton plays second, a tough spot to fill, but also is 3^rd Base eligible in some leagues. At the start of the year, he was batting 9^th, but now he is at the 6 spot and looks like he is producing even more.

Adrian Gonzalez: Here is another guy I like. He had a solid year last year, but somehow went under the radar and in Yahoo leagues; his average draft position was 220. Last year, he proved his power by getting 24 HRs and 82 RBIs. He batted .304 last year and this year it is .310. He also is batting fourth most of the games this year, a step up from last year. I expect a solid year from Gonzalez and because he plays first base, many people won’t need him and you could probably attain him at a good price.

Rich Hill: Definitely for real! National league look out. Hill has given the Cubs much needed quality starts and other than his second start versus Milwaukee, every start has been at least seven innings and under two runs. He gets a substantial amount of strikeouts, while posting an unreal 0.87 WHIP. Last year, he was superb after the break and he is just continuing this year. He is certainly a guy to go out and get.

Chris Sheltons:

Aaron Hill: I am just not a believer in Hill. Before this year, his best month was one where he hit 4 homers and had 10 RBIs. He was fortunate enough to have 33 at bats with runners in scoring position; that is 8 more times than A-Rod in a great Yankee lineup. He is .269 with runners on, but the amount of at bats is the reason for the RBI total. I would be shocked if he followed up his hot April with a few more.

Josh Beckett: Remember last year. Beckett started hot and even had 11 wins at the break. Well I expect it to happen again because Beckett plays in a tough division for pitchers. His era (2.48) will go up big time. I’ve seen people pay big prices for a couple of good starts because this isn’t going to last. Just ask the people who had him last year.