Second Half Duds

Much unlike the last column, I would like to mention some of the players that won’t produce the type of numbers that their owners would like. In simpler terms: players that will fade. Now to find these players, I will look at recent statistics and compare it with the start of the season as well as previous seasons and other factors. However I’ll try and give an alternative so you don’t get too bummed if you see one of your “guys” on my list.

My first second half dud is J.J. Hardy. Now I like J.J. Hardy and I like seeing the Brewers turn it around, but I’d be surprised if Hardy ends up with 36 homers and 108 RBIs. The tell-tale sign for me is just comparing months. In April and May, the shortstop hit 15 home runs in 52 games equaling out to a little better than one bomb every four games. However, in June and July, J.J. only hits one out exactly one every nine games. His RBI total is going down along with the average monthly double totals. Although I don’t know if I would do the swap yet, keep an eye on upstart Troy Tulowitzki. I look for the power numbers to soar as Garrett Atkins and Brad Hawpe have been turning it up.

Jack Cust is not a guy I would necessarily depend on in the second half of the fantasy baseball season. He is in an 0-13 slump and a 3-27 one and is quickly lowering his batting average. His fifteen home runs is a decent total, but his 30 runs just doesn’t do it for me despite the fact that he has missed several games. I would trade him while you can get some value in return. A player that might breakout in the second half is Chris Duncan, whose numbers have just gone up and up and looks to have a great month of July.

Jose Valverde is a closer that I think might be somewhat of a dud in the second half. Part of it is not his fault as the D-Backs have lost 8 of their last 9 and may have cost themselves a huge chance of the playoffs. Valverde’s last save was all the way back on July 29 against the Giants and his last outing he gave up one earned in only 0.2 innings and got the loss. Keep in mind that his save total has gone done every month this year. I would expect a monster second half from the normally good Mariano Rivera as his Yankees look to make a run for the playoffs.

Second Half Studs

As we near the All-Star Break and the final players are voted in, managers gear themselves for the second half of the fantasy baseball season. A couple simple changes can be an extreme makeover and make contenders out of the teams that are in the basements of their leagues. Stay current and be aggressive with the waiver wire. Don’t keep players because of their names and not their stats. (Meaning: just because Todd Helton hit 30 homers three years ago and was a star does not mean that you can not drop him) Here are a couple of players that I believe could be all star fantasy players for the second half of the fantasy season.

Miguel Olivo: Here is a player that may not be someone that comes to mind for everyone. He is been playing some great ball for the Marlins recently and happens to be Yahoo’s 3^rd best ranked catcher over the past month. He does not have a great average, but it is quickly on the rise and he is starting to put up some power numbers. Olivo has a tendency to be slightly better in the first half, but I look for him to still be a pretty good sleeper for a tough spot to fill.

Mark Teixeira: Tex is coming back next week and look for him to put up big numbers. He is a huge second half player and look for another one this year. He might not be as good as he is coming off an injury, but you could most likely get him at a decent price and will be a solid option.

Paul Konerko: Like Tex, you might not need Konerko, as first base is a fairly easy fantasy position to fill, however he is still a guy I would like to have around on my team maybe even for a utility spot. His stats have been slowly increasing by month and I’d believe that he (and Chicago) is bound to break out and have a great month. Paul does have 15 homers, which isn’t bad so I look for him as a good guy to grap.

Brad Hawpe: I am becoming more and more of a fan of Hawpe. That Colorado lineup is really heating up and Hawpe has players around him like All-Star outfielder Matt Holliday and the hot Garrett Atkins to drive in, with a player like Tulowitzki to drive him in. He already has 14 homers and almost 60 RBIs so I wouldn’t be surprised to see him end up with around 35 dingers and 100+ RBIs.

Mike Mussina: I can not write a column with out mentioning at least one pitcher. Mussina is a very much established pitcher with almost 250 wins. He has been off to a slow start this year, but has look much better. In fact, over his last 6 starts, he has not given up more than 7 hits in a game, while factoring in some punchouts.

At the Crossroads

Hey, guys! Sorry about the delay. However, sometimes good things come after long periods of waiting. Just ask the Tigers about Kenny Rogers. And, about him, I have noticed that a lot of people are flocking to pick him up. I wouldn’t get him just yet, but keep an eye on him if you can. And he is surrounded by talent and offense on that team. Curtis Granderson has been hot recently and with the development of power, he has become a very nice 5-tool player. He racks up runs, while still contributing a good amount of steals. With Sheffield and Ordonez, I’d expect Rogers to get a good amount of wins considering the time he has missed.

Okay, we’re now about half way into the season so you have to be thinking about trades. One guy that you have to go after right now especially if you have some holes is Ryan Howard. You knew he had the power, now you know he has the average. He is hitting .299 in June and collecting 7 homers. Another 1^st baseman that has been playing some great ball is Carlos Pena down in Tampa Bay. He has been putting up numbers close to Pujols and is a great fill-in for someone like Mark Teixeira.

One top pitcher that you might not think to trade but should is Cole Hamels. The young talent and wins total can deceive you, but I would not hang on to him. Even though Hamels is a good source of strikeouts, his ERA in May and June has both been above 4. Plus, reports on MLB.com say that the Phillies must be cautious with their young left hander near the end of the year, especially if Philly is not in a pennant run.

Staying on pitching, one guy that you should grab is Erik Bedard. He has not given up more than 3 runs in his last 10 starts. Five wins doesn’t do much for me, but he continues to lower his ERA, while becoming the league leader in strikeouts. He has a decent whip and is a great guy to snag for a late season run. One last pitcher to keep an eye on is Mark Buehrle. His last three outings have all been quality starts and look him to pick up the pace if he is traded, as he likely will be, to a contending team.

Figuring it is late June, it is a great time to take a deep look at your team and see what it will take. If you are in a rotisserie leagues the points are really telling. A guy like Bedard would be a good option because he will fulfill strikeout needs and maybe it only takes a spare player to fill another owner’s needs. It is important to look at other teams especially ones in which you trade with. If they’re last in runs, make them pay for Bobby Abreu. And most importantly, stay active and don’t give up!

Oh, what a year!

This year has been somewhat crazy of a start. Should that surprise anyone? But these days, it is the norm for the unexpected. Prince Fielder has had a better start than Albert Pujols, even though the consensus was that Albert was the number one pick and the most certain thing. As a result of this inconsistency, I’ve seen many trades on forums and elsewhere where some guy spends a lot for some player that wasn’t drafted, but has had a hot start. Barry Bonds is not worth spending Grady Sizemore. Today I want to sort out which players are the Dan Ugglas and the Chris Sheltons, or players that have started hot, but will not last. People I have as Sheltons are people I think that are good sell high candidates or ones that aren’t worth their price tag. However the ones like Uggla are ones that were players that did not have high expectations, but were solid players that had breakout years. Here are a couple of players I believe go in each category.

Real Deal:

B.J. Upton: I am fan of Upton. He hits in the D-Ray lineup that looks much improved this year. Upton has a great average and with 5 homers and 20 RBI in April he has showed pop. If he had played all last year, he would have had about 30 steals and it looks like he could reach that this year, which would be a bonus. Upton plays second, a tough spot to fill, but also is 3^rd Base eligible in some leagues. At the start of the year, he was batting 9^th, but now he is at the 6 spot and looks like he is producing even more.

Adrian Gonzalez: Here is another guy I like. He had a solid year last year, but somehow went under the radar and in Yahoo leagues; his average draft position was 220. Last year, he proved his power by getting 24 HRs and 82 RBIs. He batted .304 last year and this year it is .310. He also is batting fourth most of the games this year, a step up from last year. I expect a solid year from Gonzalez and because he plays first base, many people won’t need him and you could probably attain him at a good price.

Rich Hill: Definitely for real! National league look out. Hill has given the Cubs much needed quality starts and other than his second start versus Milwaukee, every start has been at least seven innings and under two runs. He gets a substantial amount of strikeouts, while posting an unreal 0.87 WHIP. Last year, he was superb after the break and he is just continuing this year. He is certainly a guy to go out and get.

Chris Sheltons:

Aaron Hill: I am just not a believer in Hill. Before this year, his best month was one where he hit 4 homers and had 10 RBIs. He was fortunate enough to have 33 at bats with runners in scoring position; that is 8 more times than A-Rod in a great Yankee lineup. He is .269 with runners on, but the amount of at bats is the reason for the RBI total. I would be shocked if he followed up his hot April with a few more.

Josh Beckett: Remember last year. Beckett started hot and even had 11 wins at the break. Well I expect it to happen again because Beckett plays in a tough division for pitchers. His era (2.48) will go up big time. I’ve seen people pay big prices for a couple of good starts because this isn’t going to last. Just ask the people who had him last year.

My Thoughts on a Man Called Dice-K

Despite my love of the Yankees, there is one positive thing about all the attention given to Boston’s 100 million dollar, Daisuke Matsuzaka. That’s because even though I am a Yankee fan first, I am a baseball fan second. Being a baseball fan, I’m like most (except fans out west and others) because I am sick of hearing about Barry Bonds and the steroid issue. During the preseason, I want to hear about pitchers and catchers reporting to spring training. However, the words I usually hear are ones like Bonds, steroids, and what Bud Selig did and didn’t do, not to mention the home run record.

However, this year has been a little different. Bonds has been mentioned, as well as where Hank Aaron won’t be when Barry breaks the prestigious record. But some of the attention has been shifted to the outbursts of some managers, and most of all to Matsuzaka Mania. It’s about time baseball talk should be positive not negative. “Dice-K” is a mystery with several pitches, namely the Gyro ball. From what I have read, the pitch is like a four seam grip, but thrown like a screwball causing movement like a slider.

Figuring this is a fantasy baseball column; I have to stay true to its name and talk about the fantasy side. As a Matsuzaka owner, you must love the hype surrounding him, or should I say Matsuzaka Mania. Because of this hype and potential, his value is a bit inflated. The fact that no one knows how good he is going to be in America, makes him fantasy gold because people are willing to take a risk and trade for him because of a possibility for a big reward. Translation: He is a great sell high candidate. Some advice I learned from the Fantasy Man is to know your league mates. How cool would it be for a Boston fan to have Dice-K on his fantasy team if he has a great year? But after Sheffield started off slow and Kendrick missed months, you were glad to get Bobby Abreu and B.J. Upton in the trade. You think you’ll get much from the team named Bronx Bombers? The fan from Boston is going to get him at almost any cost and will overpay.

Last year, I made a great move. Only a few scoreless ninths and some strikeout potential made this closer convince me. He impressed me enough that by the 2nd week I had to have the guy… Jonathon Papelbon that is. After awhile, the Boston fan in my league realized him. He wanted Papelbon and begged for him and I used his liking of Boston as leverage. I’m not saying to trade Matsuzaka because that could make me look bad, but see what kind of offers you get. Like I said, the Boston fan will probably overpay, which could help fill a hole from an injury. It looks like Dice-K’s next five starts will be against the Yanks, Mariners, Blue Jays, Tigers, and Braves. (All can score and hit home runs) And if runners are on base, Matsuzaka’s era is 8.71; proof that he has trouble from the stretch. His next start is in New York, where hitters can draw several walks and cause a shaky start. Now may be the time to get full value.