Down the Stretch

Hey, thanks for stopping by the site once again. Do you want to find out large but subtle ways to improve your team? Today I am going to talk about strategies that will help you (mainly focused on ROTO leagues) down the stretch. As you know July is coming to an end and the fantasy baseball season is going into the last third of the year. Everyone is trying to make a trade that could push them over the edge or for keeper leagues figure out which guys to keep for seasons to come. Make sure that you send some e-mails out to managers. One very important thing to look at that often goes unnoticed is looking at your stats compared to teams close to you especially the one right above you. Say the owner one place better than you is just ahead of you in steals.

However, say you have three really good closers and have a ton of saves and the other guy is last in saves. Go ahead and give him one of your closers, but get one of his speedy players. Now in two months, he can’t really gain far on you or any of your league mates in saves, but you maybe got like 7 or 8 steals all depending on the player. Currently, there are over 25 players who are averaging 8+ steals in 2 months, so getting a player like that is not that difficult. But when you do addition by subtraction that trade has helped you jumped about 15 steals, which is a large difference.

For many leagues, the difference of 15 steals will probably be enough to leapfrog the guy above you. So all of a sudden players like Abreu or Beltran can win you a championship. In many instances, a subtle trade can have a major impact for you. Sometimes people forget the Roto baseball is all about having the best overall team. If you are the best in your league in one particular area by far such as homeruns, go ahead and trade away Adam Dunn and get a good pitcher or fill a spot you need. At this point you can trade away players supplying your strong points to get guys that fill needs. Many times you must think of the categories and not so much match up the talent and numbers. Now I’m not saying to go out there and trade a superstar like a Reyes but if you also have like Damon and Figgins, go out there and grab a guy like Sizemore or Byrnes to fill many needs.

Deadline Watch

Keep in mind to watch for players on teams in a pennant race. Mark Teixeira is on a last place team right now, but if he is traded to Atlanta, he may heat up and have much better RBI totals with good players around him. Ryan Braun is a player in a pennant race that looks to be the real deal. Braun has 10 home runs and is batting .356 in July. Freddy Sanchez has been a good option at second the past month for those looking for a replacement for Utley. Two veterans who have played very well of late is Jim Thome and Manny Ramirez, who had two bombs last night. Tim Lincecum and Javier Vasquez are both pitchers that have been fantastic recently. Also watch Ted Lilly, on the contending Cubs, who has given up only 1 run in 4 of his last 5 starts. That’s all. Good luck with all of your leagues.

Second Half Duds

Much unlike the last column, I would like to mention some of the players that won’t produce the type of numbers that their owners would like. In simpler terms: players that will fade. Now to find these players, I will look at recent statistics and compare it with the start of the season as well as previous seasons and other factors. However I’ll try and give an alternative so you don’t get too bummed if you see one of your “guys” on my list.

My first second half dud is J.J. Hardy. Now I like J.J. Hardy and I like seeing the Brewers turn it around, but I’d be surprised if Hardy ends up with 36 homers and 108 RBIs. The tell-tale sign for me is just comparing months. In April and May, the shortstop hit 15 home runs in 52 games equaling out to a little better than one bomb every four games. However, in June and July, J.J. only hits one out exactly one every nine games. His RBI total is going down along with the average monthly double totals. Although I don’t know if I would do the swap yet, keep an eye on upstart Troy Tulowitzki. I look for the power numbers to soar as Garrett Atkins and Brad Hawpe have been turning it up.

Jack Cust is not a guy I would necessarily depend on in the second half of the fantasy baseball season. He is in an 0-13 slump and a 3-27 one and is quickly lowering his batting average. His fifteen home runs is a decent total, but his 30 runs just doesn’t do it for me despite the fact that he has missed several games. I would trade him while you can get some value in return. A player that might breakout in the second half is Chris Duncan, whose numbers have just gone up and up and looks to have a great month of July.

Jose Valverde is a closer that I think might be somewhat of a dud in the second half. Part of it is not his fault as the D-Backs have lost 8 of their last 9 and may have cost themselves a huge chance of the playoffs. Valverde’s last save was all the way back on July 29 against the Giants and his last outing he gave up one earned in only 0.2 innings and got the loss. Keep in mind that his save total has gone done every month this year. I would expect a monster second half from the normally good Mariano Rivera as his Yankees look to make a run for the playoffs.

Second Half Studs

As we near the All-Star Break and the final players are voted in, managers gear themselves for the second half of the fantasy baseball season. A couple simple changes can be an extreme makeover and make contenders out of the teams that are in the basements of their leagues. Stay current and be aggressive with the waiver wire. Don’t keep players because of their names and not their stats. (Meaning: just because Todd Helton hit 30 homers three years ago and was a star does not mean that you can not drop him) Here are a couple of players that I believe could be all star fantasy players for the second half of the fantasy season.

Miguel Olivo: Here is a player that may not be someone that comes to mind for everyone. He is been playing some great ball for the Marlins recently and happens to be Yahoo’s 3^rd best ranked catcher over the past month. He does not have a great average, but it is quickly on the rise and he is starting to put up some power numbers. Olivo has a tendency to be slightly better in the first half, but I look for him to still be a pretty good sleeper for a tough spot to fill.

Mark Teixeira: Tex is coming back next week and look for him to put up big numbers. He is a huge second half player and look for another one this year. He might not be as good as he is coming off an injury, but you could most likely get him at a decent price and will be a solid option.

Paul Konerko: Like Tex, you might not need Konerko, as first base is a fairly easy fantasy position to fill, however he is still a guy I would like to have around on my team maybe even for a utility spot. His stats have been slowly increasing by month and I’d believe that he (and Chicago) is bound to break out and have a great month. Paul does have 15 homers, which isn’t bad so I look for him as a good guy to grap.

Brad Hawpe: I am becoming more and more of a fan of Hawpe. That Colorado lineup is really heating up and Hawpe has players around him like All-Star outfielder Matt Holliday and the hot Garrett Atkins to drive in, with a player like Tulowitzki to drive him in. He already has 14 homers and almost 60 RBIs so I wouldn’t be surprised to see him end up with around 35 dingers and 100+ RBIs.

Mike Mussina: I can not write a column with out mentioning at least one pitcher. Mussina is a very much established pitcher with almost 250 wins. He has been off to a slow start this year, but has look much better. In fact, over his last 6 starts, he has not given up more than 7 hits in a game, while factoring in some punchouts.